Ezra's Bookshelf

The Volatility Machine

by Michael Pettis · 266 pages · ~5 hrs

A structural account of why emerging market economies collapse, arguing that the usual explanations get the causation backward. Michael Pettis, a former Wall Street trader turned professor at Peking University, contends that the boom-and-bust cycle in developing countries is driven primarily by liquidity conditions in rich-country financial centers rather than by the policy choices of the borrowing nations themselves. When capital is abundant in New York and London, it floods into emerging markets largely irrespective of local fundamentals; when conditions tighten, it withdraws just as indiscriminately. Pettis supports this with a sweep through the history of international lending from the 1820s onward, showing the same pattern recurring across two centuries, and then applies a corporate finance framework to sovereign borrowing. His central technical insight is about balance sheet structure: countries whose liabilities are inversely correlated with their capacity to pay, such as dollar-denominated debt in a nation whose export earnings fall when the dollar rises, have built what he calls a volatility machine, a financial structure that amplifies external shocks rather than absorbing them. The prescription follows from the diagnosis, favoring liability management that hedges a country's actual risk profile over the conventional focus on austerity and confidence. Written after the Asian and Russian crises of the late 1990s, the book reads as a prescient framework for everything that followed, and Pettis has become one of the most cited analysts of global imbalances and Chinese debt.

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